Risk Assessment of Traffic Environment at Port Using Unascertained Measure Model
The risk of port areas is an issue to express the uncertain information. Among this uncertain information, besides incomplete information of objective conditions, there are also of policymakers intension and experience. In order to assess the traffic risk of port, the theories and methods of unascertained mathematics based on entropy were introduced. Considering the unascertained characteristics of port traffic environment, the weight of assessment indicators was determined and an unascertained quantitative model was established for port traffic evaluation on the basis of the information entropy theory. Then, we get the corresponding rank and evaluation of the risk, with the help of applying this model in 13 sections of two ports of China. Compared with traditional weight confirmed method, the results show that the evaluation is reliable, and this unascertained measure is more propitious to resolve the evaluation of traffic risk in different ports by the same evaluation standard.
ship traffic environment unascertained measure entropy risk assessment
LI Wei HU Shenping YOU Qinghua XI Yongtao
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135, China Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135, China
国际会议
The 2nd International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(第二届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)
北京
英文
466-472
2009-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）