An Ezperimental Study on the Reversal of Ezpectation in Market
In this paper we investigate the reversal of individual expectation within the context of a designed experimental market, which would be displayed by the software-z-Tree1 -for experimental economics. Overall, there are 60 participants trade in our designed market. At the background of the current and prior financial crisis, we plan to simulate a market faced by the individual investors, where the price is decided by those giant investors while the decision of those individual investors cannot impact the price level, instead, they should make their decisions according to the current price and the prediction for the future. In this way, we verify the hypotheses that investors expectation can reverse according to the signals in the market in a short period. On the basis of that, we further investigate the aspects that effect this reversal. Specifically, we examine the expectations and behaviors of investors in the process for the market from booming to stagnancy to booming again and from stagnancy to booming then to stagnancy again respectively, as well as the behaviors of the other investors in the same market and the current market mood. We observe the reversal of expectation and convergence to a uniform action via the changing trade volume and the periods for adaption. In addition, we test our hypotheses that the former experience and profit can also influence the investment decision and expectation.
behavioral economics decision making ezperimental economics reversal of ezpectation z-Tree software
ZHANG Yang
Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, P.R.China, 430074
国际会议
The 5th International Sympsium for Corporate Governance(第五届公司治理国际研讨会)
天津
英文
73-78
2009-09-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）