A PREDICTION MARKET SYSTEM USING VIPS FOR COLLECTIVE-KNOWLEDGE-BASED DEMAND FORECASTING
This study aims at developing an intra-firm prediction market system for obtaining not only a point estimate but also a continuous forecast distribution of the demand quantity for a certain product in a future time period based on the collective knowledge of, for example, the firms sales people. The system uses the variable-interval prediction security (VIPS) as the prediction security to be traded in the market, and possesses a computerized market maker which evaluates each unit of VIPS with a Gaussian price density and updates the price density function, or the forecast distribution, intermittently every time a certain condition is met according to the transactions in the market. In earlier work, a market maker algorithm using a simple weighted average updating logic has been found to be vulnerable to arbitrage. Thus, this paper refines the market maker by introducing the inventory-based updating logic and book value constraint in order to fix the vulnerability. Further, how the market maker functions and how the performance of the system depends on various parameters are studied through agent-based simulation.
collective knowledge collective intelligence demand forecasting information aggregation knowledge co-creation prediction markets
H. Mizuyama
Department of Mechanical Engineering & Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan
国际会议
上海
英文
1-6
2009-08-02（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）