An Improved Hydrological Forecast Method Based on Chaos and Trend Term
In this paper, an improved hydrological medium and long-term forecast method based on chaos and trend term is presented. First, the periodic term and trend term of the hydrological time series in the nearest years are analyzed and then using chaotic characteristic analysis for a difference of the residual time series. Finally, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system is applied to predict the residual series for obtaining the prediction result. The computation on an actual case shows that the new method is reliable to not only natural flat flow year but also special low flow year.
Hydrological forecast Time series Chaos Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
DING Guang-bin DING Jia-feng
School of Conservancy and Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056021
国际会议
2009年中国控制与决策会议(2009 Chinese Control and Decision Conference)
广西桂林
英文
4929-4932
2009-06-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）