Nonlinera Combined Forecasting Method Based on Fuzzy Adaptive Variable Weight

摘要：

Different forecasting methods can lead to very different results in power system load forecast，in order to improve forecasting accuracy, a nonlinear combined forecasting method based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight is introduced. Not only the nonlinearity of electric load forecasting is considered, but also the advantage of variable weight combined forecasting is also made use of. The determination of fuzzy weight and gray basic weight is the key aspects of this method 1, 2. A case study of load forecasting in a certain power network shows that the model proposed here has a better fitting precision. And the combined forecasting model proposed in this paper is very useful for requirement decision in power system.

关键词： Nonlinear combined forecasting Fuzzy weight Gray basic weight

作者: Qiao-lin DING Xue-hua PAN jian-xin liu

作者单位: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding,071003,Hebei Province,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED 2008)(2008中国国际供电会议)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2008-12-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）