11th-Five Year Power Supply Reliability Planning for Urban Electric Power Network of China Southern Power Grid
Due to the fact that definite forecasts on power supply reliability indices of urban power network in the network structure for the planning year are unavailable and the traditional reliability evaluating and predicting method can hardly realize this objective, the article presents two new methods based upon the statistics for predicting the power supply reliability of urban power network, of which one is reliability trend predicting method based on historical data while the other predicting method of the power supply reliability takes into account the influencing factors. The specific philosophy and application steps of the method are introduced in the paper. It is applied in predicting power supply reliability of China Southern Power Grid and the typical cities in future several years during the “11th-Five-Year Plan to derive forecast indices on power supply reliability. Moreover, according to relevant principles and in combination with the specific condition of a power network, reasonable objective values on power supply reliability are defined at length. Furthermore, it introduces the technical and managerial measures for improving the power supply reliability level. The results prove that the method in the article is very effective and can be applied in the actual planning and predicting of power supply reliability of city power distribution network. The article presents the principle, objective, philosophy and step of the power supply reliability planning for China Southern Power Grid, of which the result fruits can play an important guiding and reference role for scientific research and operational sectors.
China Southern Power Grid Urban Electric Power Network Power Supply Reliability Planning and Indices Forecast.
Yunting SONG Dongxia ZHANG Dong PENG Junling WU Caihao LIANG Ye QIU Zhigang Chen Qiong WU
China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510623,Guangdong Province,China Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute,Guangzhou 510600,Guangdong Province,China
国际会议
2008 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED 2008)(2008中国国际供电会议)
广州
英文
1-7
2008-12-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）