Uncertainty analysis of a regional groundwater model
With the increasing urbanization and population growth, best management of water resources has been an important issue in recent years. Groundwater flow and transport model is an effective tool to aid this decision-making process. To develop a model, one of the most important issues is model calibration and assessment of its uncertainty. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis of a regional groundwater flow and transport model developed for a water resource evaluation project. Sensitivity analysis was performed upon major uncertain model parameters including recharge, hydraulic conductivity, leakances, etc. Through sensitivity analysis, we found the model was most sensitive to recharge, horizontal hydraulic conductivity (K) and vertical leakance. Based on data availability and model sensitivity, we generated random fields and conducted Monte Carlo simulations to determine the model uncertainty associated with horizontal hydraulic conductivity. The Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that model head prediction uncertainties were likely to occur at locations with larger K heterogeneities and/or higher head gradients but not at locations with high K uncertainties.
X.Wei V.Guvanasen M-S.Tsou
HydrvGeoLogic,Inc..Reston,Virginia 20190,U.S.A HydrvGeoLogic,Inc..Reston, irginia 20190,U.S.A URS Corporation, Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia
国际会议
武汉
英文
93-96
2009-09-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）