Dynamic Relationship between International Oil Price and China’s Financial Variables

摘要：

There are certain relat ions between oil price and financial variables. With the methods of VEC test, Granger Causality Test and State Space Model, this paper empirically tests the relationship between international oil price and Chinas financia l variables. It dra ws four conclusions: international oil price s shocks is the reason of Ch inas policy interest adjustment whether in short or long term; fluctuation of international oil price may lead to the adjust ment of RMBs e xchange rate in long run, while there are bidirect ional causality between them in short term; fluctuation of international oil price is the reason of the change of Chinas real estate price in short term wh ile no re lation between them in the long run; there is no causality between international oil price and Ch inas stock price regardless of long or short-term.

关键词： ezchange rate international oil price interest rate real estate price stock price

作者: He Lingyun Tang Anbao

作者单位: School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou, P.R.China, 221116

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 4th International Conference on Productinnovation Management(第四届产品创新管理国际会议)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 1136-1143

在线出版日期: 2009-08-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）