The Fuzzy Bass Model of Innovation Diffusion and Its Application on the Mobile Communication Technology in China

摘要：

The effects of the outside factors such as ads and other media, and the inside factors such as oral communication on the speed of innovation diffusion are considered in deterministic circumstance, as well as the maximum market potential. However, with the development of the market economy, the effect factors and their effects at different stages of innovation diffusion process should be in an ambiguous status. Therefore, we build a fuzzy model, and using fuzzy weighted implicit scheme algorithm to simulate the process of innovation diffusion with fuzzy initial condition and fuzzy market potential respectively. We also make an empirical analysis on the diffusion process of mobile communication technology in China with GA, which show that the fuzzy model is more adaptable than the deterministic Bass model.

关键词： Innovation Diffusion Fuzzy Dynamical Systems Mobile Communication GA

作者: LIAO Zhigao

作者单位: Management Department, Guangxi University of Technology, Liuzhou 545005, Guangxi, P.R.China School of Business and Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, Sichuan, P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会)

会议地点: 青岛

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-8

在线出版日期: 2009-07-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）