Based on the Analysis of Markov Chains and Elements of the Route Network Traffic Prediction Accuracy Gray Correction

摘要：

The route network transportation amounts forecast is the premise and foundation of all air movement plans, and it has the important guiding sense. Firstly, we have gathered our country route network total volume of the circular flow correlation data in March 2008 to the February 2009. Secondly, we forecast each months total volume of the circular flow in the following year, and then carry on the revision to the forecasting result by using the Markov transfer matrix. Thirdly, we propose that the essential factors of our country route network transportation amount is the GDP rate of increment, the world economics condition, the different month and special and big event. At last we indicate the final forecasting result of various monthly totals volume of the circular flow in March 2009 to February 2010 undergoing two revisions.

关键词： Grey System Theory Markov Transfer Matriz Elements Analysis Forecast

作者: YAO Hongguang LIU Yingying GE Wanli

作者单位: School of Air Transportation，Shanghai University of Engineering and Science.P.R.China, 201620 Social Security of Management Institute, Shanghai University of Engineering and Science.P.R.China, 2 Organization Behavior of Psychotechnics in Education Institute, Tsinghua University.P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会)

会议地点: 青岛

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-8

在线出版日期: 2009-07-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）