Application of Mathematical Models in Population Predication
The population is considered as an important controlling index of urban planning and the land use planning. The rational population predication is the foundation of developing a feasible national economic plan or a regional development planning. The paper introduces three mathematical models—Malthus model, Logistic model and GM (1.1) model, with their applications in population predication, which include the establishment, the solution of parameters, the precision testing and the service condition of these models. Basing on the time series of the population of “Gansu Yearbook, the paper respectively uses three models to predict population from 2006 to 2020 in Gansu province. The results show that all the three models have high levels on the fitting precision testing and similar values on prediction. So, the paper takes an average of three models predicting value as the population prediction result of Gansu province. The population will be 27506200 persons in 2010, 28473900 persons in 2015, 29418200 persons in 2020.
Mathematical Models Population Prediction Malthus Logistic GM (1.1) Gansu Province
SHI Peiji HU Ke
College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, P.R.China, 730070
国际会议
2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会)
青岛
英文
1-8
2009-07-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）