Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Changes in RMB Ezchange Rate on Imports and Ezports Trade in Hei Long Jiang Province

摘要：

This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate changes on imports and exports of Hei Long Jiang province (HLJ), from the study of the exchange rate level and exchange rate risk. By using the monthly data, it constructs an Imports and Exports Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and performs empirical estimates. The results indicate a co-integration relationship exists between imports and exports trade of HLJ and RMB nominal exchange rate、exchange risk respectively. It is obvious that RMB appreciation inhibits the merchandise export trade of HLJ, but such appreciation does not increase any imports. Furthermore, the exchange rate risk has a negative effect on merchandise imports and exports of HLJ.

关键词： RMB Ezchange Rate Ezchange Rate Risk Imports and Ezports Hei Long Jiang

作者: WANG Chunyu

作者单位: Harbin University of Commerce, Finance School, P.R.China, 150028

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会)

会议地点: 青岛

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-6

在线出版日期: 2009-07-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）