The Empirical Study of Relationship between Marginal Propensity to Consume and Income in China
In late 2008, the financial crisis had a huge impact on the economy of the world. In order to keep the rate of growth, the Chinese government has made an economic stimulus package plan to invest 400 thousand millions (RMB) into the domestic market. However due to the low marginal propensity to consume (MPC), the multiplier effect of government investments is also in a low level. A crucial way to speed up the economic recovery is raising the amount of the consumption. Using the household income-consumption data of CHNS and applying the nonparametric local polynomial regression, we got the marginal propensity to consume of China. As a whole, the MPC is positively related to the income of the household while the overall MPC is relatively low. We also disclose the changing directions of the MPC in different household income levels. Especially we find the relation of the MPC and the income is like “inverted u-curve for those households whose income are less than 50 thousand (RMB). Finally we present some feasible advices for China on how to improve the consumption in order to avoid the huge negative impact from the economic recession.
Financial Crisis Marginal Propensity to Consume Local Polynomial Estimation
LI Yi GU Wentao
Department of Statistics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, P.R.China
国际会议
2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会)
青岛
英文
1-7
2009-07-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）