Forecasting of Customs Ezport Based on Gray Theory

摘要：

Customs export plays a pivotal role in this countrys economy and the social change. Forecasting customs export efficiently enables policy makers to plan more appropriately and thus to help to improve the balance of trade. Customs export traditionally is forecasted by using econometric methods. This paper focused on the gray theory and uses G.M(1,1) model to forecast Hubei Provinces export value via historical data. The results show that this model can forecast customs export more accurately than can an econometric model, Hubei Provinces exports in 2009 will continue to go up..

关键词： foreign ezport forecasting grey theory

作者: Zhang Dabin Zhu Hou Zhang Jingguang Zhang Dabin

作者单位: Information Management Department Huazhong Normal University Wuhan, China, 430079 Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Second International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering(BIFE 2009)(第二届商务智能与金融工程国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 630-633

在线出版日期: 2009-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）