A Structure Analysis and Trend Prediction of the Population Development in China
In this paper, improved Malthus exponential growth model and Grey forecasting model are adopted to analyze the structure of the population development in China and we give mid-short term or long-term prediction. According to the results, a new differential equation model which based on natural growth rate of population from 2000 to 2003 is built. In view of the new features of Chinas population development these years, 12 factors indicators are selected from different aspects of Chinas population structure using grey correlation analysis. At last, index factors with greatest influence on the development of Chinas total population are figured out for the purpose of making recommendations and reasonable control on the development of the population of china.
population predictions population structure grey prediction
Guizhi Wang Jie Li Jiacai Sun Xiaorong Huang
College of Mathematics and Physics Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing, 210044, China
国际会议
北京
英文
817-821
2009-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）