A LONG-TERM ELECTRICAL POWER LOAD FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON GREY FEED-BACK MODIFICATION

摘要：

There are many uncertain factors for electricity consumption with the characteristic of obvious changing tendency. The traditional grey model has been widely used in the field of forecasting systems. However, many results have shown that the model is biased. On the basis of the biased model, this paper introduces a new grey feed-back modification model, LGM(1.1), for long-term forecasting. Using this model, The trial forecasting precision of electric power load in certain region of Hebei province is improved.

关键词： LGM(1,1) grey feed-back modification long-term forecasting model power load

作者: HE-RUI CUI

作者单位: Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics(2008机器学习与控制论国际会议)

会议地点: 昆明

会议语种:英文

页码: 2198-2201

在线出版日期: 2008-07-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）