SPATIAL MODELS OF TRAFFIC FLOW FORECAST (FOR THE TERRITORY OF KALININGRAD REGION)

摘要：

This article describes the experiment on the modeling of the intensity of traffic flow on the border of Russia (Kaliningrad region) and Poland and the forecasting of possible routes of passenger traffic. For the main criteria in the models was taken such a condition that one solution can not deny the model in the case if three following conditions are kept:1. Compatibility - the result of the modeling does not disprove the source data covering the number of people crossing existing check-points on the border with the Republic of Poland.2. Importance - the criteria of quality on some control examples shows the presence of cause-effect relations between the intensity of passenger traffic and the infrastructure.3. Consistency - the result may be interpreted using the existing data and knowledge and based on the geographical position and experience.The results of the modeling are described.

作者: Vladimir S.Tikunov Sergey E.Koshelev

作者单位: M.V.Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography Vorobievy Gory, Moscow 119991 Russia

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第十四届国际地图与地理信息系统学术研讨会

会议地点: 乌鲁木齐

会议语种:英文

页码: 719-723

在线出版日期: 2008-06-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）