An Empirical Analysis on Chinas Long-Run Phillips Curve with Characteristics of Hyperbola
By analyzing the history of traditional Phillips curves, this paper criticizes that the nonlinear characteristics have been ignored on the Phillips curve studies. Based on the Chinese annual data during 1979-2005, the paper does an empiricl analysis by creating a long-run Phillips curve. The paper leads with four results as follows: First, the long-run Phillips curve can be a special rational function with the characteristics of hyperbola. Second, the model can explain why the long-run Phillips curve may occupy a negative slope, positive slope or be a parallel line, vertical line. Third, the paper finds that the Chinas long-run Phillips curve fluctuates periodically aroud the coordinate in an anticlockwise direction. Final, the paper achieves that the threshold of Chinas economic overheating at the point of the real GDP growth rate is 10.94% and the threshold of serious inflation at the point of cpi is 7.44%.
Phillips curve Hyperbola
Huqin Yan Zhenyu Liu
Xiamen National Accounting Institute, China School of Management, Xiamen University, China
国际会议
第八届武汉电子商务国际会议(The Eighth Wuhan International Conference on E-Business)
武汉
英文
1625-1633
2009-05-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）