A Mathematical Model of Regional Population Network Based on Percolation Theory
City population forecast is one of the most important works in urban master planning. The traditional methods forecast city population with strong subjectivity and in intense disorder. They often calculate certain population for several times and in the end get a larger population forecasting number than the real. In this paper, a effective percolation-theory based population-facast method is proposed. The region with lots of cities and rural is viewed as porous media, the population migration in the region is viewed as fluid, cities and rural in the region are viewed as pore. A mathematical model of population flow network is established based on fractured percolation theory. Based on this model, city or region population forcast can be easily calculated in a similar way as calculating the flow in porous media. Population flow density in different time can be easily got through simulation. This new method will benefit the city population forcast application.
URBAN planning Population forecast Fluid mechanics in porous media Percolation theory
ZHAO Huiyan LIU Jian-jun DUAN Xiang
Department of Civil Engineering, Wuhan Polytechnic University, P.R.China, 430023
国际会议
2009 International Forum on Porous Flow and Applications(第十届全国渗流力学学术会议)
武汉
英文
362-366
2009-04-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）