SYSTEM DYNAMICS ANALYSIS OF URBAN RAIL TRANSITS EFFECT ON PRIVATE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING CITY

摘要：

A complex system dynamics model, termed as BeijingSD, focusing on the effect of urban rail transit on private vehicle ownership is presented for the effective regulation of private vehicles in Beijing. By converting component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation, BeijingSD integrates information feedbacks that govern interactions of public traffic, economical, social and environmental factors, thus can present reasonable predictive results for policy-making on sustainable transport development.Based on scenario analyses with dynamical simulation, suggestions on promoting sustainable development of private vehicles through the guidance of urban rail transit are put forward.

关键词： System dynamics Information feedback Private vehicle ownership Urban rail transit Policy-making

作者: LI LIU YAPING ZHOU QINGHAI MENG

作者单位: Room 504, South campus of USTC at Huzihou Road Hefei, Anhui province, P.R.C. School of Management at University of Science & Technology, 96 JinZhai Road, Heifei, Anhur province, Room 323, #3, South campus of USTC at Huzihou Road, Hefei, Anhui province, P.R.C.

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Second International Conference on Information & Systems Sciences(ICISS2008)(第二届信息与系统科学国际会议)

会议地点: 大连

会议语种:英文

页码: 591-601

在线出版日期: 2008-12-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）