Monte Carlo Simulation for Failure Analysis of Plunge Pools Downstream of Large Dams
Probabilistic methods, which consider resistance and load parameters as random variables, are more suitable than conventional deterministic methods for determining the reli-ability level of a structure. Risk and reliability analysis is presently being performed in al-most all fields of engineering depending upon the specific field and its particular area. Proba-bilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a central feature of hydraulic engineering structural design. When flow passes over a free overfall spillway, it forms a jet. This jet of flow with a high velocity may cause scour at the downstream of spillway. The plunge pool characteristics are affected by parameters like discharge intensity, drop height, tail water depth, size of bed material and standard deviation of bed material. In fact, hydraulic variables involved in plunge pools, such as discharge, flow depth, and velocity, are stochastic in nature, which may be represented by relevant probability distributions. Therefore, the optimal design of a plunge pool needs to be modeled by probabilistic methods. The main topic of this paper is concerned with the reliability-based assessment of the ge-ometry of the plunge pool downstream of a spillway. Also it was found that plunge pool characteristics (i. e. maximum depth, maximum length and width) are functions of depended (i.e. discharge, drop height and tail water depth...). The accuracy of the developed equa-tions was examined both through statistical and experimental procedures with satisfactory re-suits.
Risk analysis reliability plunge pool monte carlo simulation large dams
Shams Ghahfarokhi Gholamreza Van Gelder Pieter Vrijling Han
Faculty of Civil Engineering Hydraulic and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology,Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, 2600 GA, Delft,The Netherlands
国际会议
International Conference on Dam Safety Management(2008水库大坝安全管理国际研讨会)
南京
英文
233-243
2008-10-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）