Influence of Uncertainty of Strength Parameters on the Instability Probability of the Embankment Dam Slope
At present, the safety factor of sliding resistance determined by the limit equilibri-um method based on the determinate property parameters of soils is used to evaluate the sta-bility of the dam slope. However, the property parameters of practical soils are variables with certain changeable range, so the instability probability of the dam slope with a larger factor of safety is not always less than the dam slope with a less safety factor. In this paper,based on study of the statistical properties of soil strength parameters of 12 uniform earth dams, using the Monte-Carlo method to perform the dam slope instability probability analy-sis for the critical slipping surface, the influence of mean value, variability and correlation of strength parameters of fill materials of the dams on the instability probability of dam slope are studied. The results show that the uncertainty of strength parameters has significant in-fluence on the instability probability of dam slope. The instability probability of dam slope decreases with the increase in the mean value and increases with the increase in the coefficient of variability of the strength parameters. The correlation between the two strength parame-ters also has evident influence on the instability probability. Therefore, during evaluation of the stability of the embankment dam slope, based on the deterministic analysis, if the uncer-tainty of strength parameters can be considered and the instability probability of the dam slope can be calculated, the assessment of dam safety will be more scientific and reasonable.
Embankment dam strength parameter uncertainty instability probability
Chen Qun Tang Min Zhu Fenqing
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of hydraulic and hydroelec China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.Ltd., Chengdu 610031, China
国际会议
International Conference on Dam Safety Management(2008水库大坝安全管理国际研讨会)
南京
英文
288-294
2008-10-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）