Dynamic Forecasting Evaluation Model of Dam Risk Based on Socioeconomic Development
Based on the current condition of socioeconomic development, connecting the change of dam risk with the velocity of socioeconomic development, the effect of socioeco-nomic development to the change of dam risk is analyzed. Using the evaluation result of dam risk in a base year, it builds a dynamic forecasting evaluation model of dam risk, puts for-wards to three computational formulas of single dam risk (three types of dam risk, conclu-ding life risk, economic risk, risk of society and environment) which varies with the velocity of socioeconomic development, and preliminarily discusses how to determine the factors of the formulas, and gives their range. The new model that is a maiden attempt can effectively reflect the dynamic time-varying characteristics of dam risk changing with socioeconomic de-velopment. According to the evaluating result of dam risk breach in 2004, using the index ofsocioeconomic development, Changlong reservoir in Jiangxi province is used to do dynamic forecasting evaluation of dam risk breach in order to validate the applicability of the model. The computational result indicates that economic risk and risk of society and environment distinctly increase with quick socioeconomic development while life risk distinctly decreases.
Socioeconomic development dam risk dynamic forecasting evaluation
Zhou Kefa Sheng Yanfeng Li Lei
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China The Yiwu City Survey and Design Institute, Yiwu 322000, China
国际会议
International Conference on Dam Safety Management(2008水库大坝安全管理国际研讨会)
南京
英文
824-830
2008-10-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）