UNCERTAINTY ON A SHORT-TERM FLOOD FORECAST WITH RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL
Precipitation forecast has been become a useful asset for flood prediction using rainfall-runoff model. An uncertainty that appears on the forecast affects accuracy of flood prediction, added to that is which possessed in the rainfall-runoff model. The case is in Shichikashuku Dam basin in Japan. The precipitation forecast is a product of short range forecast of Japan operational numerical weather prediction based on Mesoscale Model (MSM) and Regional Scale Model (RSM). The rainfall-runoff model based on distributed tank model. This research estimates total uncertainty by quantifying mean error and standard deviation on the precipitation and discharge forecast. The result has shown that the precipitation forecast is more uncertain than discharges. Uncertainty is significantly increased after twelve hour and draws a common characteristic between both models.
flood forecast runoff model uncertainty precipitation forecast
Hadi Kardhana Akira Mano
Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
国际会议
第16届亚太地区国际水利学大会暨第3届水工水力学国际研讨会(16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symoposium of IAHR-ISHS)
南京
英文
88-92
2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）