WATER SECURITY SCENARIO ANALYSIS:METHODOLOGY AND A CASE STUDY
Water security concerns for developing and managing water resources in an equitable, efficient and integrated manner for human survival and well-being. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model for dynamic scenario analysis of urban water security strategies was set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, the SD scenario analysis was applied into the water security systems scenario analysis for Jurong city of South Jiangsu province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based scenario analysis method is effective and can serve as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve urban sustainability.
water security System Dynamics scenario analysis PSR framework sustainability
Fang Tong Zengchuan Dong
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources-Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanji State Key Laboratory of Water Resources-Hydrology and Hydraufic Engineering, Hohai University,Nanjin
国际会议
第16届亚太地区国际水利学大会暨第3届水工水力学国际研讨会(16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symoposium of IAHR-ISHS)
南京
英文
307-313
2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）