SLOPE HAZARD RISK DUE TO RAINFALL CONDITION IN FUTURE
Extreme precipitation is forecasted by global warming with GCM (General circulation model). The water resource crisis and an increase in the disaster are feared with cause as extreme precipitation in the future. It is necessary to evaluate a high dangerous region by the spatial-temporal distribution to risk mitigation. The risk map is useful of counter measures planning. The situation of take a counter measure can be understood from the time change of the risk map. We made the risk maps of the slope hazard in JAPAN by using forecast climate data (RCM20Ver.2: JMA)and digital geographic information data. I evaluated slope hazard risks about Present climate(1981-2000), Near-future climate(2031-2050), Future climate(2081-2100). The risk indexes are slope failure probability and economic damage of each land use.
Climate changes rainfall slope failure Probability Economic damage
Seiki Kawagoe So Kazama Masaki Sawamoto
Graduate School of Environmental studies, Tohoku university Graduate School of Environmental studies, Tohoku university, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University
国际会议
第16届亚太地区国际水利学大会暨第3届水工水力学国际研讨会(16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symoposium of IAHR-ISHS)
南京
英文
1108-1117
2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）