ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR ASSESSING RANDOMNESS IN DAM DESIGN, RISK AND SAFETY ANALYSIS-I: THEORY
There is an increasing need for transparent and accurate method of quantifying uncertainty in outputs of multivariate functions of random variables (FRV) such as those used in design, risk and safety analysis of hydraulic structures. Conventional methods mostly employ the Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM), which, as its name signifies, is a simulation method that is not more than approximation. However, more rigorous but accurate and theoretically founded analytical method could be tested and employed. The work herein discusses an analytical procedure for determining derived probability distributions for quantifying randomness in outputs of FRV in design, risk and safety analysis. First basic theories and proofs surrounding the analytical method are presented. Then, implementation architecture is developed and implications of the method on dam risk and safety analysis are discussed. A follow-up paper will demonstrate the proposed method on a case study.
probabilistic design risk and safety analysis function of random variables
Abate K.Negede Hans-B.Horlacher
Technisehe Universit(a)t Dresden (TUD), Germany TUD, IWD, George -B(a)hr-Str-1, 01069 DD, Germany
国际会议
第16届亚太地区国际水利学大会暨第3届水工水力学国际研讨会(16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symoposium of IAHR-ISHS)
南京
英文
1874-1880
2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）