ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR ASSESSING RANDOMNESS IN DAM DESIGN, RISK AND SAFETY ANALYSIS-Ⅱ:CASE STUDY
This paper addresses lack of transparent and accurate method of quantifying uncertainty in outputs of multivariate Functions of Random Variables (FRVs) used in design, risk and safety analysis of hydraulic structures. The researchers utilized a method with a set of analytical procedures that use derived distributions for quantifying randomness in outputs of FRVs. A case study employing stability performance evaluation of Tendaho Dam in Ethiopia is used to illustrate the procedures. Laboratory data on the case study dams fill material characteristics have been collected. Theories surrounding the method are presented in a preceding companion paper. Results from the analytical method are compared and discussed with results from deterministic and three classical probabilistic methods; Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM), First-Order-Second Moment (FOSM), and Second-Order-Second Moment (SOSM) methods.
probabilistic design dam risk and safety analysis
Abate K.Negede Hans-B.Horlacher
Technische Universit(a)t Dresden (TUD), Germany TUD, IWD, George -B(a)hr-Str-1, 01069 DD, Germany
国际会议
第16届亚太地区国际水利学大会暨第3届水工水力学国际研讨会(16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symoposium of IAHR-ISHS)
南京
英文
1881-1887
2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）