Analyzing Real Estate Price and Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China Based on VAR Model
As the rapid economic growth, real estate price were surging heavily in most cities of China recently. Real estate price and macroeconomy were supposed to interact closely. This paper employed a first order VAR model to analyze the interaction between real estate price and macroeconomic factors such as GDP, interest rate, inflation. The results showed: firstly, real estate and macroeconomy had long-term equilibrium relationship, while they existed disequilibrium in the short run; secondly, real estate price and GDP could cause each other, while the relationship between real estate price and interest rate was not significant; thirdly, past real estate price and GDP were the main factors to affect real estate price; fourthly, real estate price and past GDP had the most influence on GDP. The conclusion was: firstly, macro control measures should be taken to correct economic systems disequilibrium; secondly, harmonizing real estate price and macroeconomy was feasible and necessary because real estate price and GDP were interacted; thirdly, other measures such as increasing land supply and housing supply should be carried out to suppress the rapid real estate price growth as the impact of interest rate policy on real estate price was not significant.
Real estate price Macroeconomy Fluctuation VAR model Granger causality test
Huang Zhonghua Wu Cifang Du Xuejun
School of Public Administration Zhejiang University, P.R.China, 310029
国际会议
2008年国际应用统计学术研讨会(2008 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies)
烟台
英文
1-5
2008-08-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）