New Model of Price Indez of Commodity Retail Forecasting System
Price index of commodity retail is a relative number reflected the price of commodity retail variable trend and degree in a given period. The price of commodity retails variation directly effect residents payment and national financial revenue. So in order to forecast the variable trend of commodity price index, a new model is presented that based on unascertained c-means and Markov chain with gray relevancy weights. Firstly, the unascertained C-means method is applied to divide time series of growth rate state, and the unascertained classification standard of growth rate state is established. Secondly, a method, called Markov chain model with gray relevancy weights, is applied to predict the future growth rate state by regarding the gray relevancy weights based on the special characteristics of precipitation being a dependent stochastic variable. And the price index of commodity retail is worked out. Finally, the correction and feasibility of this model is identified as in a case study.
Unascertained Cluster Gray Relevancy Weight Markov Chain Forecasting Price Indez of Commodity Retail
YAN Huizhe MA Lihua
School of Economics and Management Hebei University of Engineering, Handan P.R.China, 056038
国际会议
2008年国际应用统计学术研讨会(2008 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies)
烟台
英文
1-6
2008-08-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）