Analyzing Real Estate Price and Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China Based on VAR Model
This paper employed a first order VAR model to analyze the interaction between real estate price and macroeconomic factors including GDP, interest rate and inflation rate. The results show: firstly, real estate and macroeconomy have long-term equilibrium relationship, while they have disequilibrium in the short run; secondly, real estate price and GDP could cause each other, while the relationship between real estate price and interest rate is not significant; thirdly, past real estate price and GDP are the main factors to affect real estate price; lastly, real estate price and past GDP have the most influence on GDP. The conclusions are: first, macro control measures should be taken to correct economic systems disequilibrium; second, to harmonize real estate price and macroeconomy is feasible and necessary because real estate price and GDP are interacted.
Real Estate Price Macroeconomy Fluctuation VAR Model Granger Causality Test Impulse Response
HUANG Zhonghua WU Cifang DU Xuejun
School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, P.R.China, 310029
国际会议
2008年国际应用统计学术研讨会(2008 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies)
烟台
英文
1-5
2008-08-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）