Predicting outbreaks of a migratory pest：An analysis of DBM distribution and abundance
We estimate the efiect of climate on the distribution and relative abundance of DBM，Plutella xylostella，in Australia.We use the known limits of the species’range，seasonal phenology，experimental observations and the known and inferred responses of DBM to temperature and moisture as the base data on which to draw inflerences using the CLIMEX analysis package.CLIMEX can be used to describe the relative growth and persistence of a species in relation to climate.We test our model by comparing our predicted worldwide distribution of DBM with the“knowndistribution.We further predict changes in relative abundance among vears due to variable climatic conditions，and changes in geographic distribution due to weather and migration by analysing outbreak data for DBM in the British Isles.Models such as these will be crucial to the interpretation of changes in DBM abundance if we wish to disentangle the effects of various managementDractices from the normal variation in abundanee due to climate alone.
Myron P.Zalucki Michael J.Furlong
School of Integrative Biology,The University of Queensland,Brisbane,Australia,4072
国际会议
北京
英文
122-131
2006-10-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）