ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN COUPLED THM SIMULATIONS OF THE FEBEX CASE EXAMPLE FOR TASK D OF THE DECOVALEX-THMC PROJECT
Coupled THM simulator is a highly nonlinear system including several nonlinear sub-models. To better understand the coupled THM processes and their influence on the prediction of disposal system behaviour, this paper presents an uncertainty study on coupled THM simulation under DECOVALEX-THMC framework. It foucuses on the effect of complexity on model uncertainty which is based on the hypothesis stating that as a model becomes more complex in terms of increased number of processes involved and parameters, the error between simulations and measurements decreases and the overall model sensitivity increases. An uncertainty function is defined which minimizes both error and sensitivity. The result of comparative study basing on different complexity level models of FEBEX case study verifies this hypothesis and indicates that method presented can address uncertainty of numerical model and give us a criterion to choose most suitable model in a relative manner.
Xiaoyan Liu Chengyuan Zhang Quansheng Liu
Institute Of Rock And Soil Mechanics, The Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan 430071, P.R.China
国际会议
南京
英文
294-299
2006-05-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）