Research of risk analysis on flood forecasting with error- adjustment

摘要：

In application to ZHANG-HE reservoir basin, the inflow flood forecasting scheme is introduced briefly, and the formulation of its error risk function is emphasized. This paper considers the forecasting errors have relationship with flood discharge magnitude. And the forecasting error of different flood discharge magnitude is analyzed statistically. Using interval estimation principle, a probable error magnitude bound on different risk level α is estimated. To consider safety preference, the upper limit of the probable error magnitude bound is called maximal probable error. On the same risk level, the correlativity function between different flood discharge magnitude and its maximal probable error is called forecasting error risk function.

关键词： flood forecasting error- adjustment analysis risk function

作者: LI Li-hong LUO Wen-sheng YU Song

作者单位: Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2005年大坝安全与堤坝隐患探测国际学术研讨会(International Symposium on Dam Safety and Detection of Hidden Troubles of Dams and Dikes)

会议地点: 西安

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-13

在线出版日期: 2005-11-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）