Forecast of Soil Stalinization in Western Jilin Province of China
Ecological environment in the western Jilin Province is threatened by soil Stalinization.The study area is the west of Jilin Province in China.By using TM image in 1993 and ETM+ image in 2003 from LANDSAT satellite and integrating field survey,all kinds of maps and text datum,soil Stalinization information for the west of Jilin Province were extracted by man-computer interactive interpretation method in Arcinfo GIS software and land use type (including Stalinization soil) maps of 1993 and 2003 were finished.By the statistic analysis and spatial analysis,the primitive status matrix and the transition probability matrix of different land use types from 1993 to 2003 were calculated.On the basis of Markov model,the change trend of the Stalinization soil was forecast.The field data of 2001 was used to validate the model,showing that the model is efficient and suitable for prediction.The results of calculation using the Markov chain model showed that the Stalinization in study area is quite severe.If current policy is kept,the annual mean rate growth of Stalinization is 4.29％,the area proportion of the study area will rise from 6.19％ in 1993 to 6.81％ in 2013,and the area of Stalinization will rise to 322517.64 hm2 in 2013.Therefore,the question of Stalinization should not be ignored,and effective measures should be taken to maintain healthy development of environment.According to the results of the model,adjusting land-use / land cover pattern and providing scientific Basis for macroeconomic decision become available
forecast of soil Stalinization Markov model the west of Jilin Province Geographic information system
ZHAO Zhuo LIU Zhiming DU Huishi
College of Urban and Environmental Science,Northeast Normal University,Changchun,Jilin Province,China 130024
国际会议
第16届国际地理信息科学与技术大会(16th International Conference on GeoInformatics and the Joint Conference)
广州
英文
2008-06-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）