Modeling the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission in developing countries:A case study in Changchun City,China
This paper presents an integrated model to model the effects of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by coupling a cellular automata (CA) land use development model,population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model.The improvement of this model lies in using an improved CA epidemic model that can divide individuals into three states (susceptible,infected and recovered) and combine connection factor,movement factor into the epidemic model to provide more helpful outcomes in infectious disease transmission.A population density surface model and a household density surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission.A case study is presented involving modelling infectious disease transmission in Changchun City,a rapidly urbanizing city in China.The simulation results for Changchun City over a 30-year period show that the average numbers of susceptible individuals,infected individuals and recovered individuals in the latter time are greater than those in the previous time during the process of urbanization.In addition,the average numbers of susceptible individuals,infected individuals and recovered individuals increase with higher population growth rate.
developing countries infectious disease transmission urbanization CA land use development model population projection matrix model CA epidemic model
Ping Zhang Peter Atkinson Changbao Yang
Geo-Exploration Science & Technology College,JiLin University,China School of Geography,University of Southampton,Southampton SO17 1BJ,UK
国际会议
第16届国际地理信息科学与技术大会(16th International Conference on GeoInformatics and the Joint Conference)
广州
英文
2008-06-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）