Modeling and predicting urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area based on cellular automata

摘要：

The period of high economic growth in Japan which began in the latter half of the 1950s led to a massive migration of population from rural regions to the Tokyo metropolitan area.This phenomenon brought about rapid urban growth and urban structure changes in this area.Purpose of this study is to establish a constrained CA (Cellular Automata) model with GIS (Geographical Information Systems) to simulate urban growth pattern in the Tokyo metropolitan area towards predicting urban form and landscape for the near future.Urban land-use is classified into multi-categories for interpreting the effect of interaction among land-use categories in the spatial process of urban growth.Driving factors of urban growth pattern,such as land condition,railway network,land-use zoning,random perturbation,and neighborhood interaction and so forth,are explored and integrated into this model.These driving factors are calibrated based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA),spatial statistics,logistic regression,and trial and error approach.The simulation is assessed at both macro and micro classification levels in three ways:visual approach;fractal dimension;and spatial metrics.Results indicate that this model provides an effective prototype to simulate and predict urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

关键词： CA GIS urban model geosimulation the Tokyo metropolitan area

作者: Yaolong Zhao Junsan Zhao Yuji Murayama

作者单位: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650 Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences,University of Tsukuba,Tennodai 1-1-1,Tsukuba,Ibar

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第16届国际地理信息科学与技术大会(16th International Conference on GeoInformatics and the Joint Conference)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2008-06-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）