Fuzzy Risk Analysis
In this paper a fuzzy model based on fuzzy inference system is introduced for calculating the level of risk in managerial problems. In this model the severity and probability of risk are considered as input factors and risk states as the output. Using the fuzzy model, the risky condition changes smoothly in a fuzzy environment as it is the case in the real world, while in classic models we may have some sudden changes in the state of the system caused by an infinity small deviations in input parameters. The main advantage of the introduced model is that for continuous values of input factors the counters of risk surface represent a more realistic behaviour for different systems. The model is extended to a system of three inputs (probability, Impact, Ability to react) and one output (Risky situation). A system of two power plants in twenty periods of times is considered as a case study, and is analysed from the view point of risky dynamics for decision making on the priority for repair.
Risk analysis Fuzzy Inference System
J.JASSBI S.KHANMOHAMMADI
I.A.U.,Science & Research Campus
国际会议
北京
英文
2007-05-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）