Analyze the Impacts of Different Technology of Demand Forecasting on the Bullwhip Effect
Analyzed the existence and influence factors that bullwhip effect is became in the supply chain, and made a qualitative analysis on the bullwhip effect from the perspective of demand forecasting which is the most important factor of inducing, the bullwhip effect in a simple multistage supply chain is analyzed by moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting. Furthermore, introduced a new forecast model based on BP neural network, a real diagnosis is done by the investigated data, the results show that the bullwhip effect and their variable are different due to different forecasting techniques, it is the BP neural network that makes the best method of forecasting market demands to the bullwhip effect about the special supply chain structure, which could significantly reduce the bullwhip effect and its influence.
demand forecast bullwhip effect BP neural network
Xiaojing ZHENG
Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin
国际会议
北京
英文
2007-05-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）