会议专题

System Dynamics Approach for Grain Production and Consumption Projection in China

As the biggest agricultural country in the world, China chooses to follow a path of grain self-sufficiency. This paper forecasts the grain production and consumption situation till 2030 applying System Dynamics approach. Based on the analysis of grain production and consumption, Causal Loop Diagram is first formulated to explain the present state, the SD flow diagram is then developed to simulate. Model simulation result indicates 95% self-support rate has been and will continue to be achieved. In order to produce enough grain to feed China’s ever-increasing population, it is imperative for the Chinese government to invest in agricultural infrastructure and technical improvement research. Meanwhile, it is also requisite for China to import moderate grain in order to meet the whole domestic grain consumptions in the long-term.

Forecast System Dynamics Simulation Grain Production

Haiyan WANG Lu LIU Fangting YANG Jun MA

School of Economics & Management,BeiHang University,Beijing 100083,China Beijing Simulation Center,Beijing 100854,China

国际会议

工业工程与系统管理2007年国际会议(International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Systems Management)(IESM 2007)

北京

英文

2007-05-30(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)