The Study of REM-GM (1, 1) Model on Sales Forecasts and Cluster Predication Method

摘要：

The amount of sales un-house is important basis for inventory management of commerce and enterprises.Through carefully analyzing about previous researching results,we find that traditional forecasting methods,such as time series,regression analysis and kalman filtering,have some defects in large information demanding,the numerical instability and insensibility to environment changes.So,based on GM (1,1) model and combining calamity grey prediction at residual hour,this paper establishes a REM-GM (1,1) model and with the aid of cluster prediction method successfully forecasts the amount of sales un-house of commerce and enterprises.The empirical studies observe that the model of un-house forecasting,no matter whether one step forecast or multi-step long time forecast,has a more remarkable prediction precision.

关键词： The amount of sales un-house Cluster predication GM (1 1) REM-GM (1 1) Calamity grey prediction

作者: Sun Qingwen Zhu Xianying Luan Xiaohui

作者单位: School of Business and Administration,Hebei University of Economics andBusiness,Shi Jiazhuang ,P.R.C School of Business and Administration,Hebei University of Economics andBusiness,Shi Jiazhuang ,P.R.C Scientific Research Bureaus,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shi Jiazhuang,P.R.China,05006

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第三届产品创新管理国际会议(The 3rd International Conference on Product Innovation Management)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2008-10-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）