Grey predication of corrosion on oil atmospheric distillation equipment
Shengli refinery plant process high-sulfur crude oil,the equipment expose to wash erosion seriously. The elbow on the entrance of the atmospheric distillation tower top exchangers always leak. Measured the thickness by ultrasonic thickness meter every month,established GM((1,1) model with grey system theory,the average relative error is 1.8959％,model passed error check,is eligible. Adding a number to the thickness of the elbow,then subtract it from the result,established improved GM (1,1) model,and the average relative error is 1.3084％,increased prediction precision. Used full data to create improved GM (1,1) model to predict the thickness of elbow in the future,found that the life can reach to 24 month,but can not reach to 36 month. It shows that the grey system model is feasible; the improved full data GM (1,1) model is more accuracy. Fluent can be used to help determine the detective place.
Corrosion prediction Grey system model corrosion prediction Grey system model GM (1,1) model
Zhengfang Wang Yong Wang Hui Qi Jian Zhang Dawei Qu Xiuhua Liu
Institute of Mechanical Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China;Machinery Wo Institute of Mechanical ngineering,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China Machinery Works,Qilu Petrochemical Corporation,Zibo 255400,China Institute of Mechanical Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China Boiler & Pressure Vessel Inspection Institute of Zibo,Zibo 255000,China
国际会议
Fracture Mechanics and Applications 2008(国际断裂力学2008年年会)(FM2008)
杭州
英文
371-375
2008-10-31（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）