Integrating Scenario Planning and Real Options to Cope the Uncertainty of Emerging Technologies

摘要：

This paper discusses integrating scenario planning and real options to cope the uncertainty of emerging technologies.And the basic reason of integrating these two methods is that they have different functions but are complementary.The effect of integrating the two methods is better than distinct application.The paper firstly analyzes respective characteristic and integrating motivation of scenario planning and real options,then follows an analysis of the concrete integrating process,and carries on the explanation with the case,finally forecasts the future directions.

关键词： Scenario planning Real options Emerging technology Uncertainty

作者: Li Tianzhu Yin Lu Guo Ruilan

作者单位: School of Management and Economics,University of Electronic Science & Technology of China,Chengdu,China 610054;College of International Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang,China 330022

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008杭州技术管理研讨会(MOT 2008)

会议地点: 杭州

会议语种:英文

页码: 72-78

在线出版日期: 2008-04-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）