Prediction of Default Probability of ClientsElectricity Charge Arrears
On the basis of analyzing the reasons bringing on electricity charge arrears and utilizing the gettable data,the key variables effecting on the charge arrears which are needed in arrear recognition risk are designed.By means of logistic regression theory which is commonly used in dealing with bicategory problem,we established the model which can recognize the possibility of electric power clients charge arrears.Thereby,it is possible to predict the default probability according to the latest data from client that the electric power enterprises could acquire,and the previous management mode is to be changed,i.e.passive occurrence of charge arrears are turned into active prevention in advance.Therefore propose of preventing client arrears could be achieved.
electricity sales arrears risk logistic regression model default probability
Hui Zhou Yi Wang Wei Wang Tao Li Hong Yang
School of Electric EngineeringBeijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing,China Market Department North China Electric Power Grid Co.Ltd.Beijing,China
国际会议
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）