Discuss the harvesting and management of petroleum
Currently,there is a stern necessity to predict the future of petroleum and develop some policies to solve the problems it brings In this paper,we discuss the harvesting and management of petroleum.Firstly we employ the empirical formula P（t） =η×Rα(t) to describe the relationship between production and reserves.In order to estimate the endowment,we develop the differential equation to research the trend of production and endowment.Utilizing the statistical data,we predict that petroleum will be used up in about 50 years.Moreover,we use the significant test method to validate the rationality of the model,and obtain some satisfactory results.In view of the multiple factors that affect production,we introduce a perturbation factor ξ(t).Taking war for example,we make computer simulation to illustrate the effect of perturbation.
petroleum differential function perturbation factor
Biao Wang
Master Candidate,Department of Statistics and Finance University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) Hefei,China
国际会议
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）