Using Numerical Weather Prediction for State-of-the-Art Forecasting
Increases in the amount of electricity generated from wind energy will require sophisticated management tools to accommodate its inherent variability and ensure grid reliability. Accurate wind energy forecasts are a key component of these management tools. The effect of wind energy is lost in the noise associated with load forecast errors at low penetration levels of wind energy – that is, when wind energy is only a minor part of the overall electricity generation mix. However, as penetration levels increase, the area control error (ACE) is increasingly affected by the variations (especially the unpredicted variations) in wind energy. Furthermore, as energy markets continue to develop and find ways of handling unscheduled generation, wind energy forecasts become a valuable asset to traders and financial decision makers. In fact, at high penetration levels wind can significantly move the price of the electricity market. Consequently, an accurate wind energy forecast becomes a valuable tool for all market participants-whether operating renewable energy projects, conventional generation or some other aspect of the power system. This paper presents the use of numerical weather prediction in creating state-of-the-art wind energy forecasts. It discusses the advantages and disadvantages of a physics-based modeling approach and contrasts it with some of the other techniques that are used to generate wind energy forecasts. Finally, the paper highlights some important areas for future development in wind energy forecasting that will enable better management of wind, an unscheduled resource.
Wind Energy Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cameron W.Potter Kenneth Westrick
Mail Address:2001 Sixth Avenue,Suite 2100,Seattle,WA,USA,98121
国际会议
北京
英文
2008-10-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）