Wind Power Forecast Based on ARX Model with Multi Time Scale Parameter
This paper reports a wind power forecast model based on ARX model based on multi timescale model to accurately predict the wind power including the effect of operating condition. A wind power forecast model based on ARX model with multi timescale parameter was developed and the improvement of the prediction accuracy was verified by comparing the measurement data and conventional approach. Following results were obtained. 1) Proposed multi time scale parameter model enabled to predict the operating condition of the wind farm and the prediction accuracy increased compared to the conventional model. 2) The optimum time scales exist for the estimation of different model parameters and for the estimation of the parameter which represents the operational condition is much shorter than the one used for the estimation of the power curve.
regional wind power forecasting multi-timescale model sub-region based upscaling approach
A.YAMAGUCHI T.ISHIHARA
Department of Civil Engineering,School of Engineering,The University of Tokyo
国际会议
北京
英文
2008-10-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）