The Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effects Based on StochasticPetri Nets
The quantitative analysis of “domino effects is one of the main aspects of hazardassessment in chemical industrial park.This paper demonstrates the application of heterogeneousstochastic Petri net modeling techniques to the quantitative assessment of the probabilities of dominoeffects of major accidents in chemical industrial park.First,five events are included in the dominoeffect models of major accidents: pool fire,explosion,boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion(BLEVE) giving rise to a fragment,jet fire and delayed explosion of a vapour cloud.Then,thedomino effect models are converted into Generalized Stochastic Petri net (GSPN) in which theprobability of the domino effect is calculated automatically.The Stochastic Petri nets models,whichare state-space based ones,increase the modeling flexibility but create the state-space explosionproblems.Finally,in order to alleviate the state-space explosion problems of GSPN models,thispaper employs Stochastic Wellformed Net (SWN),a particular class of High-Level (colored) SPN.Toconduct a case study on a chemical industrial park,the probability of domino effects of majoraccidents is calculated by using the GSPN model and SWN model in this paper.
Domino effects Stochastic Petri Net Risk Analysis Chemical Industrial Park Major Accidents
S.Y.Bao J.X.Zhu L.J.Wang N.Jiang Z.L.Gao
Institute of Process Equipment and Control Engineering,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou,31 College of Informatics and Electronics,Zhejiang University of Science,Hangzhou,310018,China
国际会议
成都
英文
2008-08-04（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）