A novel methodology to manage uncertainty for multidisciplinary designand optimization in conceptual design
Uncertainty in design and simulation affects the quality of product directly during theprocess of MDO,which should be considered to help designers to make the design decisions,especially at conceptual design stage.In traditional approaches,this uncertainty is ignored in the hopethat it is not significant to the decision making.In this investigation,firstly,three main uncertainties inMDO of conceptual design are pointed out and carefully analyzed.Then,an innovative methodologyintegrating extract knowledge and probabilistic method to manage these uncertainties is presented.Considering practical application and eliminating the uncertainty in configuration,we propose apromising method combining Fuzzy c-means algorithm (FCM) and Rough Sets theory (RST) todeduce the configuration rule.Furthermore,probabilistic kriging model is utilized as anapproximation model to reduce global computational expense of complex product.Sensitivityanalysis (SA) is used to reduce uncertainty of inputs of simulation,and mean square error (MSE) isemployed to assess model error to reduce model uncertainty.Finally,the validity and necessity of thismethodology are demonstrated through the conceptual design of bulk carrier.
Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Uncertainty Rough Sets theory (RST) Kriging
X.Y.Shao X.Z.Chu L.Gao H.B.Qiu
The State Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,1037,Luoyu Road,Wuhan,Hubei,430074,P.R.China
国际会议
成都
英文
2008-08-04（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）