Based on dempster-shafer evidence conflict theory and fault tree to estimate oil/gas pipeline reliability
Reliability assessment is one of the important technologies to ensure the safety of the long-distance oil/gas pipeline, the veracity of the reliability impacts the rationality and applicability of the result of the security assessment. In this research, fault tree analysis (FTA) which could be used to compute failure probability is introduced, and it is fit for ensuring the reliability when there is no calculating model and history data, and which acutely subjective probability instead of objective probability. By the D-S theory, unilateral for only one expert could be avoided and making the judge of the many experts more true. However, when the evidence is conflict, classical D-S evidence combination rule could not realize the information fusion, under this way, the other evidence combination rule is introduced and the reliability calculating model is established.
Pipeline Reliability Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis D-S Conflict Evidence
Xing-yu PENG Peng ZHANG Jiang-sheng YU Ying WU Zhou LIU
Graduate school of Southwest Petroleum University Chengdu 610500,China
国际会议
2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)
北京
英文
689-693
2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）